If we don’t rebel, if we’re not physically in an active rebellion, then it’s spiritual death.” ― Chris Hedges

Monday, January 17, 2011

Bogus claims on Australian floods from Australia’s ABC TV and Gobal Warming shill Dr Richard Somerville

This ridiculous video story below from ABC news cites über alarmist Richard Somerville of Scripps in San Diego, and is backed up with this print story [excerpts follow]:


Posted on January 14, 2011 by Anthony Watts

Here’s what the print story headline said:



Quoting Somerville:


“Because the whole water cycle speeds up in a warming world, there’s more water in the atmosphere today than there was a few years ago on average, and you’re seeing a lot of that in the heavy rains and floods for example in Australia,” Sommervile [sic] said.

he adds:


“This is no longer something that’s theory or conjecture or something that comes out of computer models,” Sommerville [sic] said. “We’re observing the climate changing — it’s happening, it’s real, it’s a fact.”


Well perfessor, while a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor content, I call BS on your statement. The climate has always changed. The same argument is being used to hype increased hurricane threats, and as we’ve seen from Dr. Ryan Maue, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) says the linkage just isn’t there.


The headline of course is sensational, they really didn’t put any thought or research into the Brisbane, QLD flooding, they simply drew a conclusion and found somebody to support it with a soundbite. I’ve seen plenty of examples of this style of crappy TV news journalism in my career. Professor Somerville apparently couldn’t be bothered to do a little historical research before claiming the floods in Queensland were connected to “global warming”, neither could ABC News.

What did ABC news and professor miss? This graph from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on Brisbane flooding history. When you add the 2010 flood levels to the graph (as Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. bothered to do, shown in red below) all of the sudden, the historical context for the flood being driven by global warming disappears:

And this is backed up from the BoM web page narrative.


Explain then perfesser, how the 1974 flood, which was worse, links to “global warming”. Or how about the biggest flood, in 1893? How does that figure with “global warming”, especially when it was cooler in 1974 and in 1893 there was no appreciable rise in CO2 globally?


Some people will say, “well that’s just Queensland”, so here is the Australian continent. The same questions apply:


The historical narrative for 1893 from BoM:

3/2/1893 Lower part of Brisbane submerged, and water still on the rise; the “Elamang” and the gunboat “Paluma’ were carried by the flood into the Botanical Gardens, and the “Natone” on to the Eagle Farm flats.


4/2/1893 Disastrous floods in the Brisbane River; 8 feet of water in Edward Street at the Courier building. Numbers of houses at Ipswich and Brisbane washed down the rivers. Seven men drowned through the flooding of the Eclipse Colliery at North Ipswich. Telegraphic and railway communication in the north and west interrupted.


5/2/1893 The lndooroopilly railway bridge washed away by the flood. Heaviest floods known in Brisbane and suburbs.


6/2/1893 The lower part of South Brisbane completely submerged. The flood rose 23’9″ above the mean spring tides and 10 feet above flood mark of 1890; north end of the Victoria Bridge destroyed.


7/2/1893 Flood waters subsiding. Sydney mail train flood bound at Goodna, unable to either proceed or return.

13/2/1893 Second flood for the year in the Brisbane River.


16/2/1893 More rain in the south east districts; another rise in the Brisbane; further floods predicted.

17/2/1893 A third flood occurred in the Brisbane River for the year.


18/2/1893 The ‘Elamang” floated off from the Botanical Gardens. Business at a standstill in Brisbane. Ipswich and other towns. Several deaths by drowning reported.


19/2/1893 The gunboat “Paluma” safely floated off the Gardens, and the “Natone” off Eagle Farm flats. Another span of the lndooroopilly railway bridge carried away. The third flood reached its maximum height at 12 noon, viz. 10 inches below the first flood.

In my opinion, professor Somerville is spouting nonsense about Australia.


The Australian rains are being driven by La Nina says NASA in this press release


“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect on the Pacific trade winds and has made tropical Australia particularly rainy this year.”

UPDATE: Here’s yet another expert with a similar opinion, from CNN, where they quote a Columbia (where NASA GISS is located) lead forecaster:


The catastrophic weather events taking place across the globe – from Brazil’s and Australia’s flooding to the Eastern United States’ heavy snowfall – have two likely explanations.

Tony Barnston, lead forecaster at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said two phenomena – La Niña and the North Atlantic Oscillation – are likely responsible for the patterns we’re seeing.


UPDATE2: T Gough in comments points out in this discussion on the Met Office website:


For the Australian state of Queensland, there is strong evidence to suggest that La Niña is the main reason for the ongoing widespread flooding. The current floods are also the worst since 1974 – which coincided with the strongest La Niña on record.

They offer this chart:

And this Q&A discussion which is a transcript of a video interview (PDF)









La Nina and severe weather around the world

Adam Scaife – Senior Climate Scientist

What is La Nina?


La Nina is part of a natural climate oscillation in the tropical Pacific. It oscillates between the warm El Nino phase, El Nino is Spanish for ‘the boy’, and the cold La Nina phase. So La Nina is like the cold little sister phase of this oscillation and it’s a purely natural event, occurs every few years as part of this natural oscillation.

Is the flooding in Australia linked to La Nina?


So during La Nina the rainfall that normally falls out over the Pacific shifts west over Indonesia and indeed northern and eastern parts of Australia. So the fact that there’s been lots of flooding in Queensland recently is very consistent with the occurrence of near record La Nina this year.

Is the flooding in Sri Lanka and Brazil linked to La Nina?

So La Nina affects weather patterns throughout the globe but of course the further away you are from the La Nina the more difficult it is to pinpoint the affects, it’s a bit like waving a long stick, the uncertainty grows the further away you are from the source. And so when we look at remoter regions, like Brazil or Sri Lanka, it’s more difficult to attribute the recent flooding events to La Nina. If we take the Brazil case, then when we look in historical records and in our climate models, then southern parts of Brazil are actually dry during La Nina so it would be difficult to attribute the recent flooding near Rio to the La Nina that is going on at the moment. If you go to Sri Lanka that is a little bit more complicated, a little bit less clear because it’s right on the edge of the wet influence from La Nina, but again historically it looks like La Nina tends to drive drier conditions in Sri Lanka so the previous biggest event, or the biggest on record in fact in 1974, Sri Lanka was actually dry.

Is La Nina linked to climate change?


La Nina, El Nino cycles have been going on for a very long time, they’re natural cycles, they’re part of a natural oscillation in the Pacific and indeed when we run our climate models into the future with increasing levels of greenhouse gases then there are no consistent changes in the El Nino, La Nina cycle.

Here’s the video:




While the Met Office may have trouble forecasting winter, they are right about this basic understandign of La Nina. It seem’s there’s a consensus forming that contradicts Somerville’s view of the world.

UPDATE3: My Oz friend Dr. Jennifer Marohasy has this discussion of Eastern Australian rainfall from 2008 and offers this graph, not the 1974 peak. When this graph is updated with the latest rainfall data, it may show a spike similar to 1974.


What the graph demonstrates is that heavy rainfall spikes have occurred in the past, and they are not exclusive to our present with m ore CO2. h/t to reader Crosspatch for this link.


UPDATE4: Crosspatch also points out that BoM now has the most recent rainfall totals online, here is the rainfall for QLD:




Weather history apparently can repeat itself, and the precedent was set before CO2 became a worry.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/14/bogus-claims-on-australia-and-brazilian-floods-from-abc-and-dr-richard-somerville/



Here I have strung together some excellent comments from the article; I do not list any AGW nutjobs as they have their own forum – MSM. I believe the alternative media does not have to give equal time as the alternative media IS the equal time not given to an opposing view of the AGW nutjobs in the MSM...


Weather Underground Forecasting All Time Record Cold for the Northern Hemisphere Tonight


“The coldest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere is -90F.”


-92F is forecast for tonight.


http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/weather-underground-forecasting-all-time-record-cold-for-the-northern-hemisphere-tonight/


Good article at the Guardian UK by Germaine Greer:


“Australian floods: Why were we so surprised?”


Meteorologists warned Australians six months ago to prepare for a soaking. And nobody did a thing …


…In Brisbane the benchmark was the flood of 1974; most Queenslanders are unaware that the worst flood in Brisbane’s history happened in 1893. Six months ago the meteorologists thought it was worthwhile to warn people to “get ready for a wet, late winter and a soaked spring and summer”. So what did the people do? Nothing.


….The phenomenon is anything but momentary; the not-so-exceptional rainfall will continue, probably until the end of March. Professor Neville Nicholls, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, believes that “the Queensland floods are caused by what is one of the strongest (if not the strongest) La Niña events since our records began in the late 19th century”. He was asked if the intensification was a consequence of global warming, and declined to comment.


Other people have been rather too quick to claim the extreme weather as a direct consequence of global warming. (It will surprise many readers of the Guardian to learn that in Australia there is still a bad-tempered debate about whether global warming is happening or not.) …


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/15/australian-floods-queensland-germaine-greer

There are essentially 3 points contradicting this bogus “science”


1. If increased moisture is used to explain these floods, draughts should become less frequent/severe and not the opposite.


2. La Nina is on a global scale a cool weather event, which should become less frequent/severe in a warming world and not the opposite.


3. There have been worse floods in history all occurring in typically cold episodes of temperature history, the worst in the 18oos.




Status of the CLOUD experiment – November 2009


http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1221088



Just because people (worldwide) happen to live in areas subject to natural extremes doesn’t mean we have to reorganize our entire economies to chase after a microscopic margin of “safety”.


People die every day under perfectly mundane circumstances. That’s life. Not global warming.


“Because the whole water cycle speeds up in a warming world, there’s more water in the atmosphere today than there was a few years ago on average, and you’re seeing a lot of that in the heavy rains and floods for example in Australia,” Sommervile said.


Then it follows that, with more water in the atmosphere and on land, sea level must be falling. No? But that’s not what these snake-oil salesmen are pitching – along with the rest of the Global Warming tripe.


So, if the extra GHG heating, excluding water vapor, is 2.63W/m**2 according to NOAA.


Evaporation/Convection, which causes weather, removes about 100 W/m**2 from the earth’s surface.


If this GHG heating causes an increase in surface temperature, both radiation and evaporation/convection will increase. Surely the maximum increase in evaporation/convection is 2.63/100.


So how can the GHG heating increase convection by more than a couple of percent? This effect would always be too small to be statistically detectable, surely.


So, the GW Climate Gate “a global tax’ll fix it” IMF cheer squad are blaming GW for the Australian floods: Are they sure? 1/4 of 1 degree difference in global temperatures since 1980 makes that much difference that they can be that sure that this year's storms are affected by the change in temperature going on since 1750; but not last years', the previous years', nor any of the previous 29 years of weather were affected?


Let’s assume that we have Global Warming and more moisture in the sky due to the increased temperature. OK, come winter the cold causes more snow, more moisture = more snow; it all sounds reasonable, UNTIL you look at the science.


(1) The process of freezing water causes the water to release heat energy.


(2) According to the laws of thermodynamics, the energy does NOT just disappear.


(3) Air circulation will mix the air from the ground level to the cloud level and back again.


The explanation given could explain more snow, BUT it should be very mild cold temperatures. Sooner or later the heat will make its way to the ground. If it doesn’t, then we would have more snow, followed by more rain. However, we are seeing a very bitter cold. The facts don’t fit the theory.


Given that 10 years ago they told us that, “However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. ”


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html



I’d say they are just making it all up as they go along.


The individuals who claimed that Queensland would not experience floods anymore due to AGW need to be listed in large bold print on the front page of the newspaper.


Anyone now saying that floods are due to AGW need to be likewise listed along with the notation that today’s floods is still less than the flooding that has appeared in the past.


What they attempt to do is take ANY current weather extreme and link it to AGW. If it is dry, it is AGW. If it is wet, it is AGW. If it is hot, it is AGW. If it is cold, it is AGW. What some newspaper there needs to do is contrast these conflicting claims on the front page in large, bold print.


The ABC’s story is a piece of warmist clap trap. You expect this from ABC that has bought the AGW con hook, line and sinker.


But please don’t compare 1893 with what has just happened. There are 2 significant dams in place today that weren’t present in 1893. If these dams were not present it is quite possible the 1893 flood level would have been exceeded for the current event although it’s hard to be certain.


Some areas in SE QLD saw flood levels 1-2m above the 1893 event bear this in mind when making comparisons. Several recording stations in the Lockyer Valley had their gauges destroyed so we will never know what the true river levels were at these places. Both events were very different in nature. The current event saw wide spread rainfalls up to 600mm whilst 1893 saw more concentrated rainfalls in the northern part of the catchment with one measuring station recording 2000mm+ in a 4 day period.


This link to Jennifer Marohasy, in Australia is very interesting. When this graph is updated, it may be close to the 1974 rainfall peak from that La Nina – Anthony


http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/Eastern%20Oz%20No%20Trend%20Line.jpg


Met Office has a report (14/1/11) on its website ‘Global flooding and La Nina’


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/La-Nina-impacts

They say “For the Australian state of Queensland, there is strong evidence to suggest that La Niña is the main reason for the ongoing widespread flooding. The current floods are also the worst since 1974 – which coincided with the strongest La Niña on record”.

I guess Australia had access to the real story as early as 2008:


http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/08/interpreting-eastern-australian-rainfall-data/



Brisbane is not the only part of eastern Australia affected by floods. The problem started as a cyclone developed in the Coral Sea, moved south and then inland. This left a trail of townships flooded down the Queensland coast.


Oz is the flattest continent, averaging only 300 m asl. The continental divide runs close to the eastern coastline and is generally less than 1000 m asl. As a result, major waterways starting in the ranges, run inland until they reach the Southern Ocean or Lake Eyre. The gradients on these rivers is thus very low, except near the headwaters and so there are no effective deep channels to guide rainwater in the manner of many northern hemisphere rivers. Instead large downpours in the headwaters of the major rivers readily spread across broad, ill-defined flood plains and readily cause chaos.


A similar pattern has developed in the Gascoyne region of WA and flash flooding is seriously affecting northern Victoria. Much of the Queensland water is about to flood western NSW.


It is like pouring water on a table. Too readily the flow takes ill-defined courses to the sea or lowest point.


Unfortunately many settlements are on or close to the “normal” water courses, and hence they are too readily prone to flooding, because there is little to contain extra waters in existing channels. Brisbane is one such settlement. Water from the eastern side of the Darling Downs escarpment was channeled onto the flood plains of the Brisbane River. Old hands learnt by experience and designed the “Queenslander” style of house on stilts that generally survives flooding. Unfortunately engineers warnings, particularly after the 1974 floods, were ignored by governments and planners and much of the damage witnessed in the past few days could be blamed on lax planning laws about rapid development and poor house design on flood-prone plains, ie. in much of western Brisbane.


AGW fruitcakes say the rising sea temperatures around Australia this past 30 years exacerbated the La Nina effect. Using the same logic warming oceans should moderate the cooling around Australia during an El Nino event and hence reduce drought severity. Yet we have been told AGW will increase drought frequency and severity; WTF?


For further consideration:


http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood7.htm

The year 1973 was one of the wettest known over much of Australia, and in keeping with the strong La Niña event that prevailed, the 1973/74 northern wet season started early. By the end of 1973 large areas of the country were saturated. Then came January 1974, which featured probably the biggest continent-wide drenching since European settlement, inundating vast areas of the country.


New Year celebrations had barely finished when torrential rains on 4 January soaked northeast Victoria and parts of the Riverina, and flooded Albury. Meanwhile, far away in north Queensland, big floods on the 5th marooned cars and coaches across a broad area. The deluge then extended to northwest New South Wales on the 7th and 8th, causing flooding along the Namoi and Castlereagh rivers: railways and roads were cut, necessitating evacuations by helicopter.


Further heavy rain fell in NSW during the second week of January , and many rivers in the north of that State were flooded. On 11 January, creeks in Brisbane burst their banks, flooding roads and streets. Northern Victoria experienced a second burst of heavy rain on the 13th; this time, floodwaters swirled through the streets of Nhill and Dimboola. Rains also extended to the normally arid north of South Australia on the 17th, flooding opal mines at Coober Pedy.


As monsoonal rains poured down, the Gulf Country of Queensland, and extensive areas of the dry centre, was turned into vast inland seas, isolating pastoral stations and causing heavy cattle losses. About 500 people were evacuated from Normanton and Karumba, while 250 stranded passengers on the Townsville-Mt Isa railway were air-lifted to Mt Isa. Some 400-600mm of rain inundated the southern Northern Territory and southwest Queensland in January, more than twice the average ANNUAL total at some locations.


On top of all this came tropical cyclone “Wanda”, which moved ashore north of Brisbane on Thursday 24 January, producing relatively little wind damage, but sending down enormous quantities of rain over the Australia Day weekend. In Brisbane, intensifying rain throughout Friday dumped over 300mm within 24 hours. In three days (ended 9am 27th) the Queensland capital received 580mm, with even heavier falls over river catchments near the city (1,300mm in five days at Mt Glorious). Wanda flood: The first houses were washed away along Enoggera Creek early on the 26th. As rivers continued to rise, many more were lost. The Bremer River peaked at Ipswich on the Sunday, and the Brisbane River peaked early on Tuesday; both at their highest levels since the disastrous floods of 1893. Fourteen people were drowned, some trapped in offices by the rising waters.


By the end of January much of Australia – normally the “dry” continent – was experiencing the problems of too much water. Vast areas of the inland remained submerged for weeks – in some cases, for months. Crops were destroyed, and outbreaks of disease, such as Murray Valley encephalitis, took their toll.

“Again, how did this massive flood happen without the help of CO2 back then?”

That’s easy!


In the past such disasters were due to the weather … these days they are due to the climate!


Whenever, or wherever, engineers construct a major new processing plant or bridge, they are asked to ensure it will continue standing in a 50, 100, 200, or in some extreme cases a 500 year weather ‘event’.

Only the most stupid AGW fanatic would refuse to accept we have occasional extreme weather events in the past and will continue to do so in the future.


A classic case of: “Don’t confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up.”


Well, I think my work here is done – I feel that my mission to kick the AGW freaks squarely in the arse is accomplished – Anthropomorphic Global Warming is another Jew World Order scam: How anyone would buy a Global Taxation system will solve anything to do with the environment leaves me gob-smacked and drooling from my bottom lip...

Much like the junk-food chomping sheeple slouched in front of their Talmud-vision brain-washing machines.






FREE PALESTINE!



veritas


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Veritas,
i thought i'd share this important link with you regarding the floods on the east coast (i'm in the Top End).
Stay well and keep up the good fight .
Cheers A13.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/thai-rain-maker-to-fight-drought-in-queensland/story-e6frf7kf-1225902740744

Anonymous said...

Oh, and Veritas, you will like this BENT read in accordance to the recent floods,and the comments are Truly bent.
The Sayanim have been at it again here...

http://catchthefire.com.au/blog/2011/01/08/are-the-qld-floods-the-result-of-kevin-rudd-speaking-against-israel/

You see the floods happened cause Rudd criticised the "isreali's".
A13

veritas6464 said...

Hey A13,...Thanks mate, I lived and worked in the Top End for about a year in the late 80's, out at Kakadu in the Four Seasons Hotel Jabiru. Thanks for the links.

veritas

Anon said...

Very detailed!

- Aangirfan

veritas6464 said...

Hey Aan,... I try to be more than just a nuisance to the yids nowadays; I am after all, on the fringe of some validly good company!

veritas